CBAM Price Q3 2026: €82.32 and the Downstream Extension

The Q3 2026 certificate price

Each quarter of 2026 has one CBAM certificate price: the weighted average of EU ETS auction clearing prices, calculated in the first week after the quarter ends. It applies to emissions embedded in goods imported in that quarter, even though certificates are only bought from 2027.

For a supplier, the jump matters because the importer's bill moves with it. In our worked example for Indian hot-rolled steel, 1,000 tonnes on default values needs about 3,372 certificates in 2026. At the Q2 price that is about €253,900; imported in Q3, it is about €277,600.

The downstream extension, in trilogue

In December 2025 the Commission proposed extending CBAM from basic steel and aluminium to goods made from them, and tightening anti-circumvention rules. The aim is to stop basic goods being processed outside the EU into finished products that enter without a CBAM charge. Typical examples are screws, bolts, wire, tubes and metal furniture.

Technical talks began on 28 September 2026. The first political trilogue was scheduled for 20 October and a second, intended to be final, is provisionally set for 30 November. No outcome had been reported when this was written. European steel and aluminium associations, with an industry trade union, have called for the broadest possible extension.

What Indian manufacturers should watch

• Fasteners, wire, tubes and fabricated steel or aluminium. If you export these to the EU, they may soon need embedded-emissions data just like the basic metal.
• Your metal suppliers. A downstream good carries the emissions of the steel or aluminium it is made from, so supplier data becomes part of your number.
• Default values for high-risk countries. Parliament wants country-level defaults for country and product combinations at risk of circumvention.
• Guidance for non-EU operators. The Commission published ten guidance documents for producers outside the EU on 14 August 2026.

ZeroCarbon tracks embedded emissions per product with the precursor data behind them, and prepares the exporter-to-importer communication file. We will update this post when the trilogue reaches an agreement.